Real-time inflation forecasting in a changing world

This paper revisits inflation forecasting using reduced form Phillips curve forecasts, i.e., inflation forecasts using activity and expectations variables. We propose a Phillips curve-type model that results from averaging across different regression specifications selected from a set of potential predictors. The set of predictors includes lagged values of inflation, a host of real activity data, term structure data, nominal data and surveys. In each of the individual specifications we allow for stochastic breaks in regression parameters, where the breaks are described as occasional shocks of random magnitude. As such, our framework simultaneously addresses structural change and model certainty that unavoidably affects Phillips curve forecasts. We use this framework to describe PCE deflator and GDP deflator inflation rates for the United States across the post-WWII period. Over the full1960-2008 sample the framework indicates several structural breaks across different combinations of activity measures. These breaks often coincide with, amongst others, policy regime changes and oil price shocks. In contrast to many previous studies, we find less evidence for autonomous variance breaks and inflation gap persistence. Through a \\textit{real-time} out-of-sample forecasting exercise we show that our model specification generally provides superior one-quarter and one-year ahead forecasts for quarterly inflation relative to a whole range of forecasting models that are typically used in the literature.Bayesian model averaging;structural breaks;real-time data;model uncertainty;Phillips correlations;inflation forecasting

Belbin Revisited: The Construct Validity of the Interplace II Team Role Instrument

In the present study the construct validity of the revised edition of the Belbin Team Roles measure, the so-called Interplace II program, is tested. Three parallel parts were used to determine someone’s team roles. The sample included 1434 persons who were asked to fill out the self-perception inventory and the self-perception assessment, whereas the observer assessment sheet was filled out by at least four observers. The inter-rater reliability appeared to be satisfactory across all team roles. As for the construct validity, which was studied in a multitrait-multimethod design using structural equation modeling, the results revealed that the discriminant and convergent validity for the instrument as a whole is good; only a small effect could be contributed to method variance.Belbin;multitrait-multimethod methodology;team roles;teams

Real-time inflation forecasting in a changing world

This paper revisits inflation forecasting using reduced form Phillips curve forecasts, i.e., inflation forecasts using activity and expectations variables. We propose a Phillips curve-type model that results from averaging across different regression specifications selected from a set of potential predictors. The set of predictors includes lagged values of inflation, a host of real activity data, term structure data, nominal data and surveys. In each of the individual specifications we allow for stochastic breaks in regression parameters, where the breaks are described as occasional shocks of random magnitude. As such, our framework simultaneously addresses structural change and model certainty that unavoidably affects Phillips curve forecasts. We use this framework to describe PCE deflator and GDP deflator inflation rates for the United States across the post-WWII period. Over the full 1960-2008 sample the framework indicates several structural breaks across different combinations of activity measures. These breaks often coincide with, amongst others, policy regime changes and oil price shocks. In contrast to many previous studies, we find less evidence for autonomous variance breaks and inflation gap persistence. Through a \\textit{real-time} out-of-sample forecasting exercise we show that our model specification generally provides superior one-quarter and one-year ahead forecasts for quarterly inflation relative to a whole range of forecasting models that are typically used in the literature

Diffusion of silver during sintering in high permittivity COG dielectrics

To achieve cost reduction in multi-layer ceramic capacitors and actuators, which use a silver-palladium alloy as internal electrode, the trend is to use alloys with the highest silver content possible. This requires ceramic materials which must be sintered at a relative low temperature. Goal is to avoid much diffusion of silver into the ceramics. Analysis of the composition of the electrode in multilayer components is a good tool to investigate the diffusion of silver during sintering. Analysis of various multi-layer components with different silver-palladium alloys shows that the diffusion of silver during sintering is dependent on the difference between the sintering temperature of the multilayer component and the melting point of the silver-palladium alloy used. Diffusion of silver into the ceramics during sintering is negligible when this difference is at least 100° C

Belbin Revisited: The Construct Validity of the Interplace II Team Role Instrument

In the present study the construct validity of the revised edition of the Belbin Team Roles measure, the so-called Interplace II program, is tested. Three parallel parts were used to determine someone’s team roles. The sample included 1434 persons who were asked to fill out the self-perception inventory and the self-perception assessment, whereas the observer assessment sheet was filled out by at least four observers. The inter-rater reliability appeared to be satisfactory across all team roles. As for the construct validity, which was studied in a multitrait-multimethod design using structural equation modeling, the results revealed that the discriminant and convergent validity for the instrument as a whole is good; only a small effect could be contributed to method variance

Probing dynamics of an electron-spin ensemble via a superconducting resonator

We study spin relaxation and diffusion in an electron-spin ensemble of nitrogen impurities in diamond at low temperature (0.25-1.2 K) and polarizing magnetic field (80-300 mT). Measurements exploit mode- and temperature-dependent coupling of hyperfine-split sub-ensembles to the resonator. Temperature-independent spin linewidth and relaxation time suggest that spin diffusion limits spin relaxation. Depolarization of one sub-ensemble by resonant pumping of another indicates fast cross-relaxation compared to spin diffusion, with implications on use of sub-ensembles as independent quantum memories.Comment: 5 pages, 5 figures, and Supplementary Information (2 figures

The effect of three years of TNF alpha blocking therapy on markers of bone turnover and their predictive value for treatment discontinuation in patients with ankylosing spondylitis: a prospective longitudinal observational cohort study

INTRODUCTION: The aim of this study was to investigate the effect of three years of tumor necrosis factor-alpha (TNF-alpha) blocking therapy on bone turnover as well as to analyze the predictive value of early changes in bone turnover markers (BTM) for treatment discontinuation in patients with ankylosing spondylitis (AS). METHODS: This is a prospective cohort study of 111 consecutive AS outpatients who started TNF-alpha blocking therapy. Clinical assessments and BTM were assessed at baseline, three and six months, as well as at one, two, and three years. Z-scores of BTM were calculated to correct for age and gender. Bone mineral density (BMD) was assessed yearly. RESULTS: After three years, 72 patients (65%) were still using their first TNF-alpha blocking agent. In these patients, TNF-alpha blocking therapy resulted in significantly increased bone-specific alkaline phosphatase, a marker of bone formation; decreased serum collagen-telopeptide (sCTX), a marker of bone resorption; and increased lumbar spine and hip BMD compared to baseline. Baseline to three months decrease in sCTX Z-score (HR: 0.394, 95% CI: 0.263 to 0.591), AS disease activity score (ASDAS; HR: 0.488, 95% CI: 0.317 to 0.752), and physician's global disease activity (HR: 0.739, 95% CI: 0.600 to 0.909) were independent inversely related predictors of time to treatment discontinuation because of inefficacy or intolerance. Early decrease in sCTX Z-score correlated significantly with good long-term response regarding disease activity, physical function and quality of life. CONCLUSIONS: Three years of TNF-alpha blocking therapy results in a bone turnover balance that favors bone formation, especially mineralization, in combination with continuous improvement of lumbar spine BMD. Early change in sCTX can serve as an objective measure in the evaluation of TNF-alpha blocking therapy in AS, in addition to the currently used more subjective measures

Two-dimensional superconductivity at the (111)LaAlO3_3/SrTiO3_3 interface

We report on the discovery and transport study of the superconducting ground state present at the (111)LaAlO$_3$/SrTiO$_3$ interface. The superconducting transition is consistent with a Berezinskii-Kosterlitz-Thouless transition and its 2D nature is further corroborated by the anisotropy of the critical magnetic field, as calculated by Tinkham. The estimated superconducting layer thickness and coherence length are 10 nm and 60 nm, respectively. The results of this work provide a new platform to clarify the microscopic details of superconductivity at LaAlO$_3$/SrTiO$_3$ interfaces, in particular in what concerns the link with orbital symmetry.Comment: 4 pages, 4 figure